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INSTRUCTOR: 
Nils J. Gransberg, Ph.D., DBIA, A.M.ASCE

Purpose and Background

Risk is a fundamental consideration for any project, regardless of scope, that must be properly considered and addressed to increase the likelihood of project success. It’s a basic duty for Project Managers to establish the project risk profile to better understand its associated constraints, limitations, challenges, and opportunities so that management plans can be proactively established and actively managed throughout the various project phases. Of the many tools available, Stochastic Risk Analysis provides an objective method of quantifying risk by developing models to describe likely behaviors and outcomes. This course will provide attendees with an introduction to risk management and greater understanding of methods to employ stochastic models to better quantify various types of project risk.

Benefits and Learning Outcomes

Upon completion of this course, you will be able to:

1. Explain the principles of construction risk management.
2. Recognize the use cases and limitations of deterministic and stochastic models to quantify risk.
3. Develop parametric cost estimating relationships.
4. Develop spreadsheet-based stochastic risk models to calculate credible range estimates.
5. Interpret risk model output to support decision making and developing management plans.

Assessment of Learning Outcomes

Students' achievement of the learning outcomes will be assessed via a short post-test assessment (true-false, multiple choice, and/or fill in the blank questions).

Who Should Attend?

• Civil Engineers
• Project Managers
• Owner’s Representatives (Public & Private)
• Architects
• General Contractors
• Construction Professionals

Outline

Day 1

Module 1: Introduction to Stochastic Risk Analysis

• Overview of Risk Analysis
• Types of Risks in Construction Projects
• Stochastic vs. Deterministic Analysis

Module 2: Probability Theory Basics

• Fundamental Concepts: Probability distributions, random variables
• Common Distributions Used in Construction Risk
• Monte Carlo Simulation Introduction: Purpose and application

Module 3: Risk Identification and Assessment

• Risk Identification Techniques: Brainstorming, checklists, expert judgment
• Qualitative Risk Assessment: Probability and impact matrix, risk ranking
• Quantitative Risk Assessment: Estimating probabilities and impacts numerically

Module 4: Monte Carlo Simulation in Depth

• Setting Up a Monte Carlo Simulation: Software tools and inputs
• Running Simulations: Interpreting output and understanding variability
• Practical Exercise

Day 2

Module 5: Advanced Statistical Methods

• Regression Analysis for Risk Assessment
• Time Series Analysis: Forecasting future risks based on past data
• Scenario Analysis: Exploring different project scenarios

Module 6: Project Scheduling and Cost Risk Analysis

• PERT and CPM Techniques
• Cost Estimation Under Uncertainty
• Contingency Planning

Module 7: Risk Mitigation Strategies

• Risk Response Planning
• Implementing Risk Mitigation Plans
• Monitoring and Controlling Risks

Module 8: Practical Exercise

How to Earn your CEUs/PDHs

This course is worth 1.6 CEUs /16 PDHs. To receive your certificate of completion, you will need to complete a short post-test and receive a passing score of 70% or higher within 30 days of the course.

How do I convert CEUs to PDHs?

1.0 CEU = 10 PDHs [Example: 0.1 CEU = 1 PDH]